Hong Kong impact perhaps just months away
How — and when — political turmoil in Hong Kong could impact the Vancouver real estate market was the subject of a lecture that political analyst and immigration lawyer Richard Kurland gave to members and guests of The Real Estate Institute of BC in late August.
There has been speculation for some time that capital from Hong Kong could flow into B.C.’s real estate market. How significant could the impact be?
Kurland puts it like this:
“There are about 300,000 people in Hong Kong with a legal right to live here [in Canada], and another 200,000 or so who have the legal right to enter Canada even though they are not permanent residents.”
That’s potential for a huge impact on real estate.
“Unless China reduces the stress level of potential emigrants,” he says, “Canada’s going to have quite a problem, centralizing here in Vancouver, and the primary crush, practically, is going to be accommodation.”
Kurland puts it like this:
“There are about 300,000 people in Hong Kong with a legal right to live here [in Canada], and another 200,000 or so who have the legal right to enter Canada even though they are not permanent residents.”
That’s potential for a huge impact on real estate.
“Unless China reduces the stress level of potential emigrants,” he says, “Canada’s going to have quite a problem, centralizing here in Vancouver, and the primary crush, practically, is going to be accommodation.”
How soon it could happen is a mystery, of course, but Kurland — who has worked with governments both in Canada and China — has an educated guess.
“Ninety days from a declaration of martial law [in Hong Kong],” he explains. “It could require something more than what we’re seeing but the day martial law is declared, and that day may be coming by Christmas, get ready. And what will Canada’s intake capacity be?
“That’s when [Hong Kong] people will vote with their feet because they’re no longer going to take the risk of doing nothing, but we’re still a long way from that. There’s only a small number of scenarios that will trigger mass migration and from what I’m observing, Beijing has control of things and they’re not emotional. I have every confidence they will not over-react.”
The experts, like Kurland, are watching for the triggers.
“Watch for spikes in airline reservations, a spike on future travel dates,” he adds. “That’s the canary in the coal mine. Or a spike in people applying for work permits, renewal of travel documents, passport applications and even citizenship applications.”
Then, logic could be that such a mass immigration into the Lower Mainland would greatly reduce the inventory of real estate.
“Ninety days from a declaration of martial law [in Hong Kong],” he explains. “It could require something more than what we’re seeing but the day martial law is declared, and that day may be coming by Christmas, get ready. And what will Canada’s intake capacity be?
“That’s when [Hong Kong] people will vote with their feet because they’re no longer going to take the risk of doing nothing, but we’re still a long way from that. There’s only a small number of scenarios that will trigger mass migration and from what I’m observing, Beijing has control of things and they’re not emotional. I have every confidence they will not over-react.”
The experts, like Kurland, are watching for the triggers.
“Watch for spikes in airline reservations, a spike on future travel dates,” he adds. “That’s the canary in the coal mine. Or a spike in people applying for work permits, renewal of travel documents, passport applications and even citizenship applications.”
Then, logic could be that such a mass immigration into the Lower Mainland would greatly reduce the inventory of real estate.
Have a realtor — or choose to be an unrepresented party
First of 2-part seriesThere were changes made to real-estate regulations last year, and this seems like a good time to re-visit them, so that you know how you are protected, as a real-estate client.
This month’s article focuses on why you choose to have a realtor represent you and what your exposure is if you choose to be an “unrepresented party.”
A realtor owes you special legal duties as your agent, such as:
• As a professional with specialized training, your realtor must always put your interests first.
• You are protected from any situation that endangers your best interest.
• Any and all the facts your realtor knows that might affect your decisions must be given to you.
• Your private information — why you’re buying or selling, what price you want, any contract terms and conditions — must not be revealed without your permission.
These are your rights, and they are protected under the Real Estate Services Act, under which BC realtors are licensed, and concerns or complaints can be filed with the Real Estate Council of BC at recbc.ca
The alternative is to go it alone, as an unrepresented party. Before taking that decision, here are the risks…
Loyalty — any realtor involved will be loyal to the person or persons you are buying from or selling to, and not to you.
Conflicts — No realtor is acting in your interests.
Full disclosure — No realtor is obligated to give you all the relevant information.
Confidentiality — Whatever you tell a realtor must be shared with the realtor’s client.
Limited assistance — A realtor can only share real estate information, not personal information, with an unrepresented party: just things like general market information, real estate statistics, communicating messages between you and their client — but can give no advice of any kind.
This is important consumer protection information that we, as realtors, want to make sure is fully understood by all buyers and sellers.
If anything is unclear, please call either Jennifer or Dale for clarification.
Next month: conflict of interest and if one realtor can represent both the buyer and seller.
“To our pleasant surprise when the offer on our house was made, it appeared that Dale and Jennifer’s work had just begun. More than any other previous real-estate experience we’d had, the Clarks were fully engaged in the home inspection process and their wisdom included future potential in the property as well as liability issues such as checking for a buried oil tank. — Rev. Dr. Ross A. Lockhart and Rev. Laura E. Lockhart, West Vancouver
Real Estate Board monthly findings more typical
According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, the word that best describes current market conditions is “normal."In its monthly news release (and monthly statistics you will find below), the Board said this:
“Home sales returned to more historically normal levels in July and August compared to what we saw in the first six months of the year. With more demand from home buyers, the supply of homes listed for sale isn’t accumulating like earlier in the year. These changes are creating more balanced market conditions.”
Here are the facts the REBGV offers to support its opinions:
• Home sales are up 15.7 per cent for August, from 2018 to 2019, and down 12.7 per cent from last month.
• New listings on MLS® in Metro Vancouver are less than a year ago by 3.5 per cent and less than a month ago by 18.8 per cent.
• The total inventory of homes for sale is up 13.3 per cent from August 2018 and down 5.9 per cent from July 2019. • The overall sales-to-active-listings ratio is 16.7 per cent — 12 per cent for detached homes, 18.4 per cent for townhomes and 21.2 per cent for apartments (12 per cent or less usually means downward pressure on home prices; 20 per cent or more generally means upward pressure on prices).
As for actual sales year-to-year comparisons for August, there were:
• 706 detached homes sold, up 24.5 per cent from August 2018
• 1,116 apartments sold, up 8.9 per cent
• 409 attached homes sold, up 21.4 per cent
• The benchmark prices in all three categories was down to $993,300 when combining all property types, down 8.3 per cent.
In all, it’s kind of a mixed bag, which is more “normal” than REBGV’s typical monthly reports this year.
As for actual sales year-to-year comparisons for August, there were:
• 706 detached homes sold, up 24.5 per cent from August 2018
• 1,116 apartments sold, up 8.9 per cent
• 409 attached homes sold, up 21.4 per cent
• The benchmark prices in all three categories was down to $993,300 when combining all property types, down 8.3 per cent.
In all, it’s kind of a mixed bag, which is more “normal” than REBGV’s typical monthly reports this year.
That for more than a decade, the colour “grey” has dominated home decor as a neutral colour
to make residences feel more calm and that, while experts feel it will be succeeded by “white”,
it’s expected that grey will hang around as a complement to darker colours or for trims and
appliances.
Last big chance to watch cruise ships from view properties
September will be the last busy month for watching cruise ships from water-view properties. You’ll have a chance to see up to 60 ships arriving or leaving Burrard Inlet, under the Lions Gate Bridge. As a rule of thumb, cruise ships start docking in Vancouver in early morning and leave before sundown, but to find out which ship you’re watching from that home with a view, or even from the shoreline, you can check the detailed list on the Nexus Realty website.
Real Estate Monthly Statistics
The following statistics for West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East compare August 2019 to August 2018 (note: sales refers to number of sales, not to sale prices).
Benchmark Price: Estimated sale price of a benchmark property. Benchmarks represent a typical property within each market. To see more information on local stats, please Click Here
