Translation: More listings than sales.
Going forward, that should mean with a larger inventory of properties available it will lead to more sales. What it does mean is that buyers are enjoying more homes from which to choose, so they’re probably going to be less inclined to move quickly.
As the REBGV puts it:
“With fewer homes selling and new listings continuing to come to market, inventory is beginning to accumulate, providing buyers with more selection compared to last year.
With more supply and less demand within this market cycle, residential home prices have edged down in the region over the last six months.”
Naturally, it depends on the region. Each micro-market has its own demographics, its own inventory and its own range of home prices. That’s why the REBGV statistics that are released each month must always be put into context.
Having said that, the sales-to-active-listings ratio for Metro Vancouver is pretty much where it should be to provide a stable market. For September, it was 16.9 per cent, and analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.
By property type, the ratio is:
• 12.4 per cent for detached homes
• 18.4 per cent for townhomes
• 20.9 per cent for apartments
It’s the first time in many months that the sales-to-active-listings ratio has been that close to “normal” for all three housing categories.
One of the factors is an interest rate that has been moving up every month or two. That was also addressed in the REBGV’s monthly release:
“With the Bank of Canada and other central banks around the globe hiking rates in an effort to stamp out inflation, the cost to borrow funds has risen substantially over a short period. This has resulted in a more challenging environment for borrowers looking to purchase a home, and home sales across the region have dropped accordingly.”
Sales in September were 35.7 per cent below the 10-year average for that month. The year-to-year September decrease was 46.4 per cent, and sales were down by 9.8 per cent from August 2022.
Meanwhile, new listings were up from August (by 27.1 per cent) and down from September 2021 (18.2) per cent.
Like almost all statistical analyses, these are the indicators used to speculate where the real estate market may be headed.
Statistics for the markets of West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East are graphically displayed below, as always.