IN THIS ISSUE:
• What 'experts' are saying about the 2023 market
• Why a Toronto family thanks Nexus Realty
• How very old beams generated new ideas
• Decor: Being prepared for house guests
• Reflection on 2022 highlights REBGV's monthly news
What’s topical in real estate as 2023 arrives
Here are some of the issues that are prompting real estate experts to offer opinions as real estate moves into 2023:
Interest rates
This subject often seems to be all over the map. The Bank of Canada raised the benchmark interest rate seven times in 2022. Some experts think there is more coming, others believe the worst is almost over, and some even think the rate could be unchanged come the next announcement on January 25. The Bank of Canada is saying only that it will react to economic data, with this caveat from deputy governor Sharon Koziki: "We are moving from how much to raise interest rates to whether to raise interest rates.”What Nexus thinks: “Although we haven't seen this 'rate' of rate increases for a long time, if ever, when interest rates stop going up, the market will stabilize and buyers will begin to emerge from the sidelines. They will want to buy once they realize prices could start to go up.”
Market activity in general
In a Forbes Magazine story, the CEO of a major real estate company, Nick Bailey, said no matter the macro-economic conditions, buying and selling will continue: “Generally speaking, when we’re talking about the overall health of the housing market, most people are approaching that conversation from the lens of an investor…the truth is, people are...[making changes in their lives]...moving to care for aging family members, relocating for career opportunities and so on, every single day. And for those people, it’s less about the interest rate or mortgage rates that week and more about their present situation and whether they can afford a house that fits their needs.”
What Nexus thinks: “Exactly.”
What Nexus thinks: “Exactly.”
Market activity in B.C.
The B.C. Real Estate Association predicts that residential sales will drop by 11.4 per cent this year. The Association’s chief economist explains that in addition to high interest rates “we’re probably going to see the economy slowing, so those factors mean continued slow activity in the housing market.” TD Economics looks further down the road, saying that annual average sales growth will fall 16 per cent next year, but rebound with a 19.1 per cent climb in 2024. Another suggestion is that rather than have a buyer’s market or a seller’s market, it could feel like “everybody’s market.”
What Nexus thinks: “So many things can affect the future that predictions should always be tempered for accuracy.”
What Nexus thinks: “So many things can affect the future that predictions should always be tempered for accuracy.”
Housing supply and prices
Maclean’s Magazine says “soaring immigration will put more pressure on housing supply” with the anticipated arrival in Canada of a record number (400,000-plus) of permanent residents, to counter the retirement of baby boomers, labour shortages (which impacts the building of homes) and low birth rates. The magazine projects Vancouver
magazine projects Vancouver
alone will require 156,000 homes over the next decade, to meet that demand. It’s a bit of a dilemma because more immigrants to build more homes also means even more homes to house more immigrants. The magazine also points out that “both Desjardins and TD expect average home prices [in Canada] to drop 25 per cent by the end of 2023” and the BCREA was projecting a 5 per cent decrease in Greater Vancouver.
What Nexus thinks: “These alarming projections seem pretty excessive. The president of one national realty company is speculating that by the end of 2023, Vancouver home prices will have fallen by only one per cent.”
What Nexus thinks: “These alarming projections seem pretty excessive. The president of one national realty company is speculating that by the end of 2023, Vancouver home prices will have fallen by only one per cent.”
Commercial real estate
Part of an article in the Globe and Mail focuses on commercial real estate investors and developers, who have also endured pandemic uncertainty may experience “a smoother path in 2023, but it will probably take until mid-year.” Emeka Mayes, head of Canadian capital markets, brokerage, at Colliers Canada, said: "“There’s a lot of capital available, and those in the industry who have it are going to be looking for places to invest it. People will be looking to relatively low-risk strategies for buying and trading, rather than rolling the dice.”
What Nexus thinks: “Investors have also had pent-up demand during the pandemic, and the components of commercial real estate are changing. Warehousing and distribution centres are growing. Offices and storefronts are being repurposed because so many people are working from home and shopping online.”
What Nexus thinks: “Investors have also had pent-up demand during the pandemic, and the components of commercial real estate are changing. Warehousing and distribution centres are growing. Offices and storefronts are being repurposed because so many people are working from home and shopping online.”
First-time home buyers
Global News pointed out in the fall that the softening of prices could signal a window of opportunity for first-time buyers who have been unable to get into the market for condos, townhomes or detached homes. Because the “extremely-hot Canadian housing market is cooling for the first time in years, albeit as prospective buyers face higher borrowing costs,” Global’s story encouraged prospective first-time buyers to think about making a move.
What Nexus thinks: “This may be overly simplistic but anything that helps first-time buyers is healthy.”
What Nexus thinks: “This may be overly simplistic but anything that helps first-time buyers is healthy.”
Beams of the past beams for the present
The Character Home project you have been reading about in News From Nexus has always been highlighted for its unique quality and approach to maximizing available housing space in the City of Vancouver.
Well, it’s even more unique than anybody thought, including the builder, Dylon Nofziger.
Near the beginning of turning a 100-year-old home into six homes on the same property — at the corner of E. 53rd Avenue and Ross Street — he discovered how something old could unexpectedly become something new.
Let Dylon explain:
“We were taking the building back to the studs in preparation for moving the house and we discovered several supporting 8" x 8" fir beams and posts. We were surprised to see they were in great shape. They had the typical nails and fasteners in them, but we saved them in the process. Since we needed to install new engineered beams, these were no longer useful in that place.”
Something old…something new.
“As we were framing the houses, we realized these beams would work well as some of the supports, and it made more sense to re-use what we had rather than use new wood,” he says. “It fit really nicely with our desire to keep materials from being unnecessarily thrown away and, in the process, we realized they could be refinished and be appealing as exposed features. It would be much more common just to use new beams and cover over them with a simple cladding, but we felt it was important to use the old wood, and also to highlight it by having it exposed.”
How old are these beams?
“These beams would have been originals from 100 years ago when the character house was built,” 
Dylon adds. “Just for fun, we counted the growth rings on one of them at over 130 years! It's our hope they will still be standing 100 years from now as we really try to build with good quality and care.”
Dylon adds. “Just for fun, we counted the growth rings on one of them at over 130 years! It's our hope they will still be standing 100 years from now as we really try to build with good quality and care.”
The idea of using beams 230 years old — and perhaps more — may grow.
“For some of the other decorative pieces, we are now working to get similar reclaimed wood from houses in the region that have been de-constructed so that we can further tie in the old wood. Our design team is working on pulling these elements together in a cohesive way.”
The six-home project is nearing its final stage of construction and is expected, barring something unforeseen, to be available for sale in a few months.
“It has been a great opportunity to bring something of the old house into the other homes that will now share in the character of the original 1922 house.”
Another phrase for it — innovative and clever recycling.
‘A binding offer for a price well above expectations’
As seniors age, often their grown children will step in to assist with the sale or purchase of a property. Such was the case for a Nexus client who sold her condominium and moved across the country.
From Toronto, her daughter and son-in-law, Carol and Ted Smith, quarterbacked the sale of Mum’s condo on Duchess Avenue in West Vancouver. Naturally, it can be stressful and sometimes a little complicated for sellers who are 5,000 kilometres away.
When the sale was official, her daughter took the time to reflect on the experience.
Here is what Carol Smith said:
“My 94-year-old mother owned a condominium apartment in Ambleside, West Vancouver, which she purchased in 2000 with the assistance of Nexus Realty Corp. When it came time to move my mother to live near me in the spring of 2022, I naturally engaged Dale and Jennifer Clark to assist us in selling her apartment.
“My brother lived with my mother and to facilitate this major move, Dale and Jennifer found him an apartment to purchase at a very attractive price in Ambleside. After moving my mother to Ontario in May and moving my brother in July, they assisted in engaging renovation contractors to spruce up my mother’s apartment for sale.
“They engaged a design consultant to advise on the necessary upgrades and contractors who performed the work efficiently and promptly. They assisted us in retaining a company that staged the apartment with attractive furniture and décor. All of this work was done at a reasonable cost and only work necessary to achieve a good sale price was performed.
“Throughout this stressful time, Dale and Jennifer were always available with prompt and helpful advice. Their attention to detail and knowledge of the Vancouver marketplace was truly outstanding, allowing us to achieve the best sale conditions. The property was listed for sale and, within a week, Dale and Jennifer secured a binding offer for a price that was well above our expectations.
“I have no hesitation in recommending Nexus to anyone wishing to buy or sell residential real estate in Vancouver.”
Meanwhile, in other news this month...
Meanwhile, in other news this month...
The most important real estate news is widely covered in major media outlets, and sometimes analyzed here in News From Nexus. What you'll find in this section is interesting real estate news that you're not likely to see on TV or in the mainstream newspapers.
Foreign buyers restrictions now in effect across Canada
As of New Year’s Day, commercial enterprises and individuals outside of Canada can no longer buy residential property anywhere in the country. The legislation was passed in Parliament last June, and was to go into effect for two years starting on the first day of 2023. Exemptions include people in Canada with temporary work permits, refugee claimants and international students who meet a certain criteria.
Real estate assessments as always from six months ago
When home owners received their assessment notices early this month, it’s important to remember that the “assessment” of their homes is as of July 1, 2022. That’s always the case at assessment time but home values are likely to have changed significantly over the last six months, given that the real estate market has been sliding in number of sales and prices of the homes.Kitsilano waterfront mansion now valued at $74 million
While most home owners can expect a rise of 5 to 15 per cent when the assessments arrive, CBC discovered that the province’s most expensive property is worth almost $1 million more than it was last year. The Kitsilano home valued at more than $74 million is a seven-bedroom, nine-bathroom waterfront mansion owned by the founder of Lululemon, Chip Wilson.
REBGV statistics reflecting on the year 2022
At the beginning of every month, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver analyzes statistics from the previous month. The exception is January, when the REBGV reflects more on what happened over the previous year than the previous month.
So in its first news release of 2023, the REBGV began with comparisons to the past year:
“The headline story in our market in 2022 was all about inflation and the Bank of Canada’s efforts to bring inflation back to target by rapidly raising the policy rate.”
And of course, while all of that was happening, people continued to buy and sell homes because that’s the way life is. It doesn’t come to a standstill because of the interest rate and inflation, while the number of homes sold may be different.
In 2022, the number of listings was 3.2 per cent below the 10-year average, yet 41 per cent above the number of listings one year ago. For the entire year, listings were down 13.5 per cent from 2021 and about the same as 2020.
How many homes are available for sale translates, naturally, into homes sold. Last year there were 28,903 homes sold in Metro Vancouver, a decrease of 34.3 per cent from 2021.
The REBGV explained:
“The Bank of Canada’s decisions to increase the policy rate at seven of the eight interest rate announcement dates in 2022 has translated into downward pressure on home sale activity and, to a lesser extent, home prices in Metro Vancouver.”
And this, about the coming year:
“We’ll watch the 2023 spring market closely to see if buyers and sellers have adjusted to the higher borrowing-costs and are participating more actively in the market than we have seen over the last 12 months.”
In the 12th of those months, sales decreased 51.8 per cent from December 2021 and the three home categories — detached homes, attached homes and apartments — participated equally. Compared to the previous month (November 2022), sales overall dropped by 19.8 per cent.
In all three categories, the benchmark price was fairly stable, compared to the year-to-year comparisons: down 5.1 per cent for detached homes and 0.2 per cent for attached homes, and up 1.7 per cent.
This is consistent with the sales-to-active-listings ratio for December 2021 to December 2022. Analysts say if the ratio is between 12 and 20 per cent for a sustained period, chances are prices should remain stable. The ratio last month was 17.5 overall — 12.3 per cent for detached homes, 19.5 per cent for attached homes and 21.7 per cent for apartments.
The statistical seeds for a look at 2023 have already been planted.
Statistics for the markets of West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East are graphically displayed below, as always.
Flashback
From the Financial Post, one year ago:
"The Ottawa policy establishment did something significant in the Bank of Canada’s new mandate. It acknowledged the lower-for-longer approach to interest rates that central banks have followed for the past decade is now official policy: low forever, or at least the foreseeable future, is the new mantra.” (The Bank of Canada raised the interest rate seven times in 2022)
Decor: The refreshing of guest rooms
Every month, News From Nexus features ideas or observations about Decor,
or ways you can make your home more appealing.
Following are guest room “top tips.”
High on the list from decorators…don’t design or furnish the room with your own personality in mind. You don’t stay in it, your guests do, so keep it simple and uncluttered.
Deciding on colours for a guest room can be challenging. The general rule of thumb is for walls and ceilings to have a neutral palette because it’s more restful and relaxing. There are many ideas to add that pop of colour to a neutral space. The simplest? A throw
blanket! Following that are cushions, and you can have some fun with adding them to that neutral room…that splash of colour can pull it together nicely.
If you have space, an ottoman or bench at the end of a bed is helpful, particularly if there’s no dresser. This gives guests a place for luggage or 
other belongings. And if you have a closet, maybe weed out unnecessary belongings, and that suggestion serves two purposes: providing space for guests to hang clothes, and doing a little de-cluttering.
other belongings. And if you have a closet, maybe weed out unnecessary belongings, and that suggestion serves two purposes: providing space for guests to hang clothes, and doing a little de-cluttering. A night stand, even a small one, is a definite plus — even if there’s only room for a glass or cup, a small reading light and a cell phone. These days, having an outlet nearby for electronics is another plus. A clock, waste basket and a mirror round out the list.
When it comes to linens, the rule of thumb is provide the best bedding you can afford: high thread-count sheets, comfy pillows and a cozy comforter. Your guests will thank you for a good night’s sleep. Leave towels and wash cloths on the bed, so guests don’t have to search for them, and a room-darkening blind is a thoughtful touch for weary travellers.
A final welcoming thought is a small basket with cosmetic necessities, a laminated card with the WiFi password in large type and…a chocolate on the pillow!
That the recent cessation of eruptions from the world’s most active volcano, Kilauea in Hawaii, mean it’s time to see how much real estate the lava has added to the Big Island?
Photo credits
Duchess Avenue apartment building: Video Openhouse
North Vancouver skyline: Orchidpost, Canva
Decor: Christopher Jolly, Unsplash
Real Estate Monthly Statistics
The following statistics for West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East compare December 2022 to December 2021 (note: sales refers to number of sales, not to sale prices).
Benchmark Price: Estimated sale price of a benchmark property. Benchmarks represent a typical property within each market.
To see more information on local stats, please click here.
$1,388,000
415 15745 Croydon Drive, South Surrey/White Rock
203 - 1340 Duchess Avenue, West Vancouver
202-15765 Croydon Drive, South Surrey/White Rock
(working with buyer)
4695 Piccadilly North, West Vancouver
1102 - 1480 Duchess Avenue, West Vancouver
891 - 165 Street, White Rock/South Surrey
605 - 1480 Duchess Avenue, West Vancouver
2423 Mathers Avenue, West Vancouver
What's happening in January throughout the Lower Mainland, with protocols included as currently known.
Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena
December 1: vs Florida Panthers, 7 p.m.
December 3: vs Arizona Coyotes, 7 p.m.
December 5: vs Montreal Canadiens, 7:30 p.m.
December 10: vs Minnesota Wild, 7 p.m.
December 17: vs Winnipeg Jets, 7 p.m.
December 19: vs St. Louis Blues, 7:30 p.m.
December 22: vs Seattle Kraken, 7 p.m.
December 27: vs San Jose Sharks, 7 p.m.
www.canucks.com
December 3: vs Arizona Coyotes, 7 p.m.
December 5: vs Montreal Canadiens, 7:30 p.m.
December 10: vs Minnesota Wild, 7 p.m.
December 17: vs Winnipeg Jets, 7 p.m.
December 19: vs St. Louis Blues, 7:30 p.m.
December 22: vs Seattle Kraken, 7 p.m.
December 27: vs San Jose Sharks, 7 p.m.
www.canucks.com
Abbotsford Canucks at Abbotsford Centre
January 6: vs Henderson Silver Knights, 7 p.m.
January 7: vs Henderson Silver Knights, 7 p.m.
January 18: vs Calgary Wranglers, 7 p.m.
January 20: vs Calgary Wranglers, 7 p.m.
January 21: vs Calgary Wranglers, 7 p.m.
January 24: vs Toronto Marlies, 7 p.m.
January 25: vs Toronto Marlies, 7 p.m.
Until January 8
Beyond King Tut: The Immersive Experience
Vancouver Convention Centre East
An incredible journey to one of the greatest archaeological discoveries of all time, as well as to the wonders in modern-day Egypt; open at 10 a.m.
beyondkingtut.com/city/vancouver
January 13
Candlelight: A Tribute to ABBA
Kerrisdale Presbyterian Church
The Listeso Quartet, performing a delightful candlelight tribute to ABBA, 6:30 and 8:30 p.m.
January 14
Candlelight: A Tribute to Coldplay
Kerrisdale Presbyterian Church
Multi-sensory candlelight tribute to the popular British rock band, in an iconic and spectacular venue, 6:30 and 8:30 p.m.
January 15
Celebrating Maestro Bramwell Tovey: His Life in Music
Orpheum Theatre, 2:00 p.m.
The VSO's tribute to beloved Maestro Bramwell Tovey, hosted by Christopher Gaze, conductors Tania Miller, Gordon Gerrard and Rosemary Thomson
www.vancouversymphony.ca/event/celebrating-maestro-tovey/
January 15-16, 22-23, 29-30
Introduction to Dim Sum
Jade Dynasty Restaurant
An amazing and entertaining two-hour Dim Sum lunch with trained chef Thomas Robson, in Chinatown
January 17-22
Fiddler on the Roof
Queen Elizabeth Theatre
Winner of nine Tony Awards, the tale of family, love and acceptance, set in Russia in the early 1900s, daily at 8 p.m., also 2:00 p.m. weekend days
www.queenelizabeththeatre.org/events/fiddler-on-the-roof/
January 19
Brass Transit: The Musical Legacy of Chicago
Orpheum Theatre, 8 p.m.
North America’s premier Chicago band tribute, with music adapted for VSO’s full orchestra
www.vancouversymphony.ca/event/brass-transit-the-musical-legacy-of-chicago/
January 20
Alchemy Vancouver: Coffee, Cocktails and Craft Beer
901 West Cordova, 9:45 a.m.
A 3.5-hour tour of Vancouver’s best coffee roasters, craft distillers and breweries; transportation included (Canadian Craft Tours $140)
www.dineoutvancouver.com/event/alchemy-vancouver
January 20
Candlelight: A Tribute to Queen and more
Kerrisdale Presbyterian Church
Tribute to Queen, the brainchild of the late Freddie Mercury, including all the hits, 6:30 and 8:30 p.m.
January 20 - February 5
Dine Out Vancouver Festival
A chance to sample the culinary world at Canada’s largest food and drink festival with three-course, fixed-price dinners at many of Vancouver’s top restaurants.
www.dineoutvancouver.com/events/
January 21-22
Frozen in Concert
Orpheum Theatre, 7 p.m Saturday, 2 p.m. Sunday
The magic of the much-loved story of Ana and Elsa on the big screen, while the VSO performs the award-winning musical score
www.vancouversymphony.ca/event/frozen-in-concert/
January 21-29
Street Food City Festival 11
Vancouver Art Gallery Plaza, 11 a.m. daily
Collection of the best of Vancouver’s Street Food trucks all in one location, with tented picnic tables and festive music for a mid-winter picnic
www.dineoutvancouver.com/event/street-food-city-11/23095/
Until January 22
Capilano Canyon Lights
Capilano Suspension Bridge, North Vancouver
Experiencing the magical transformation of the iconic bridge into an enchanted Winter Wonderland, fun for the whole family; 11 a.m to 9 p.m. daily
Until February 23
T.rex: The Ultimate Predator
Science World
A life-sized model of a Tyrannosaurus rex to captivate young and old, setting the stage for entertaining investigation into dinosaur history — daily from 10 a.m.
www.scienceworld.ca/exhibition/t-rex
Until March 19
Keeping the Song Alive
Bill Reid Gallery
Through traditional music, contemporary art, film and historical documentation, an exhibit exploring the decades-long work of Dr. Ida Halpern and the late Kwakwaka’wakw Chiefs Billy Assured and Mungo Martin
ONGOING EVENTS
884 Granville St., Vancouver
Free guided tours of the Orpheum Theatre, one of the most beautiful concert halls in North America
www.destinationvancouver.com
Forbidden Vancouver Walking Tours
Downtown Locations
Highly recommended, guided walking tours, a combination of storytelling, theatre and local history
forbiddenvancouver.ca
Sea to Sky Gondola
Squamish
Spectacular Sky Pilot suspension bridge walking trails, the Via Ferrata adventure and many other mountain-top activities
Spectacular Sky Pilot suspension bridge walking trails, the Via Ferrata adventure and many other mountain-top activities
Vancouver Aquarium
Stanley Park
Over 65,000 animals under one roof, home of the only Marine Mammal Rescue Centre in Canada (mandatory face masks)
www.vanaqua.org
Over 65,000 animals under one roof, home of the only Marine Mammal Rescue Centre in Canada (mandatory face masks)
www.vanaqua.org
Worldwide Webcams
A website catering to people who want to travel, virtual visits everywhere with webcams from Argentina to Zanzibar, and many places in between
skylinewebcams.com
BC Sports Hall of Fame and Museum
Many of Canada’s most talented athletes at Indigenous Sport Gallery, Canadian Dragon Boat Exhibition, Greg Moore Gallery, Rick Hansen Gallery! Daily 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.
bcsportshall.com
Grouse Mountain — The Peak of Vancouver
Plenty of activities for all ages when purchasing a mountain admission ticket
www.tourismvancouver.com/listings/grouse-mountain-the-peak
Virtual Tours of 12 Famous Museums
Experiencing museums from London to Seoul from the comfort of your home
www.travelandleisure.com/attractions
North Shore Events
www.vancouversnorthshore.com/events-calendar/
West Vancouver United Church
Sunday service 10 a.m.
wvuc.bc.ca/worship/
Tourism Vancouver
Virtually Vancouver, and more
www.tourismvancouver.com
Need some culture or learning in your life?
Go to a virtual museum — you’ll find a lot of them through Google: artsandculture.google.com
Go to a virtual opera: www.metopera.org/
Visit the Science Centre: www.scienceworld.ca/
Nature web cams can be fun to watch. explore.org/livecams
Search for lots of free learning programs for kids and adults online.
Virtual programming at your favourite library
A website catering to people who want to travel, virtual visits everywhere with webcams from Argentina to Zanzibar, and many places in between
skylinewebcams.com
BC Sports Hall of Fame and Museum
Many of Canada’s most talented athletes at Indigenous Sport Gallery, Canadian Dragon Boat Exhibition, Greg Moore Gallery, Rick Hansen Gallery! Daily 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.
bcsportshall.com
Grouse Mountain — The Peak of Vancouver
Plenty of activities for all ages when purchasing a mountain admission ticket
www.tourismvancouver.com/listings/grouse-mountain-the-peak
Virtual Tours of 12 Famous Museums
Experiencing museums from London to Seoul from the comfort of your home
www.travelandleisure.com/attractions
North Shore Events
www.vancouversnorthshore.com/events-calendar/
West Vancouver United Church
Sunday service 10 a.m.
wvuc.bc.ca/worship/
Tourism Vancouver
Virtually Vancouver, and more
www.tourismvancouver.com
Need some culture or learning in your life?
Go to a virtual museum — you’ll find a lot of them through Google: artsandculture.google.com
Go to a virtual opera: www.metopera.org/
Visit the Science Centre: www.scienceworld.ca/
Nature web cams can be fun to watch. explore.org/livecams
Search for lots of free learning programs for kids and adults online.
Virtual programming at your favourite library
